Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 30.116147 33.642749 37.719532 42.858788 49.282887 57.221033 68.070785
2025-03-30 25.087128 29.465367 35.004197 42.794763 53.979692 70.444083 98.969446
2025-04-06 21.605277 26.219720 32.423627 41.870379 57.006817 83.057442 141.187382
2025-04-13 20.092270 25.147989 32.358380 44.272143 65.853673 111.127136 262.503356
2025-04-20 18.255824 23.285745 30.729601 43.708771 69.357749 132.443725 459.558397
2025-04-27 16.999844 22.055682 29.795264 43.997508 74.641819 164.966146 1168.046834
2025-05-04 16.027258 21.106631 29.120226 44.535905 80.795672 211.750995 15709.105661
2025-05-11 15.138221 20.174442 28.315762 44.605130 85.948319 269.593478 NaN
2025-05-18 14.291885 19.219134 27.334270 44.080701 89.336550 334.120495 NaN
2025-05-25 13.670595 18.562088 26.782462 44.336057 95.356183 456.708211 NaN
2025-06-01 13.052256 17.854504 26.052051 44.037554 99.570468 615.597965 NaN
2025-06-08 12.492384 17.198719 25.342756 43.645715 103.407509 859.833873 NaN
2025-06-15 11.957705 16.559618 24.623533 43.159186 107.065225 1296.489242 NaN
2025-06-22 11.504140 16.028025 24.058835 42.960922 112.131175 2451.657173 NaN
2025-06-29 11.008660 15.393644 23.239372 41.976504 113.189884 4398.537238 NaN
2025-07-06 10.892934 15.403906 23.675097 44.363629 133.696519 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 10.506044 14.914010 23.064895 43.788008 137.662711 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 10.226169 14.596547 22.776453 44.073225 147.829205 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 9.987775 14.338300 22.585601 44.611282 161.133321 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 9.728627 14.027718 22.257938 44.679903 171.642830 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 9.442172 13.652982 21.765227 44.153681 176.899538 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 9.232072 13.407346 21.530399 44.409604 190.717705 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 8.995928 13.102398 21.144321 44.110217 199.084537 NaN NaN